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GOP tax plan would increase federal deficits beyond the limit, new analysis shows

  • A new analysis says the House GOP tax bill would reduce tax revenue by $1.7 trillion over the next 10 years.
  • That exceeds the $1.5 trillion permitted under the budget "reconciliation" rules that allow Senate Republicans to sidestep Democratic filibusters.

House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady (R-TX) holds up an example of the 'postcard-sized' form he wants people to use when filing their taxes during a markup session of the proposed GOP tax reform legislation in the Longworth House Office Building on Capitol Hill November 6, 2017 in Washington, DC.Getty Images

UPDATE: The Tax Policy Center has issued a statement saying it found an error in its analysis involving the child tax credit component of the proposed legislation. The center said it is revising its analysis and will release a corrected version soon.

A new nonpartisan analysis highlights a pitfall of the House GOP tax plan.

The report shows that the House GOP bill would increase federal deficits substantially in the short and long run in ways that would vastly increase the difficulty of passing it in the Senate. The report comes from the University of Pennsylvania's Penn-Wharton economic model directed by Kent Smetters, a former economic advisor to President George W. Bush.

The Penn-Wharton model shows that the House GOP tax bill would reduce tax revenue by $1.7 trillion over the next 10 years. That exceeds the $1.5 trillion permitted under the budget "reconciliation" rules that allow Senate Republicans to sidestep Democratic filibusters.

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