Thursday, March 28, 2024
Homemiddle east turmoilTurmoil in Yemen could have global implications

Turmoil in Yemen could have global implications

While Saudi Arabia handles the transition to a new king and ignores pleas from other oil-producing countries to cut crude production, the kingdom is watching an escalating crisis on its southern border that could have implications far beyond the region.

Yemen's prime minister and president resigned last week amid a rebel takeover of much of the country of 25 million. Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, have further destabilized the nation, which was already embattled by Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). The developments are of importance to global markets and security, experts said, even though Yemen is not a major oil producer.

Houthi rebel fighters patrol a road in Sanaa January 23, 2015.Khaled Abdullah | Reuters

"Unlike a lot of threats which are distant to some extent, this is an immediate threat," said Anthony Cordesman, the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

There are several problems with instability in Yemen from a regional perspective. The impoverished country is facing an impending humanitarian crisis as violent factions vie for control amid the backdrop of a diminishing water supply, according to Beth Grill, a Middle East analyst for the Rand Corporation.

Secondly, Yemen—which was already the seat of AQAP's anti-Western terror operations—could provide an even better home base for terrorists now that the internationally recognized government is on the run.

The administration of President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi has been generally willing to provide intelligence assistance for U.S. strikes within his borders, but questions are now rising over whether those will be as frequent or effective in the absence of a functioning government.

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"This is the one country where Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has really put an emphasis on attacking American targets," Cordesman said.

Yemen also occupies an important strategic position on the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, holding a position adjacent to a shipping lane that is one of the world's busiest and handles the flow of all ship-borne Gulf oil.

"Control of that area is important to the region and the world," Grill said.

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