Sunday, December 10, 2023
Homelooking ahead to 2014'Dr. Doom' Roubini gets bullish on global economy

‘Dr. Doom’ Roubini gets bullish on global economy

Economist Nouriel Roubini, renowned for his foretelling of doom and gloom in financial markets, has turned bullish in his 2014 outlook, expecting economic performance to "pick up modestly" in both advanced economies and emerging markets.

"The advanced economies, benefiting from a half-decade of painful private-sector deleveraging, a smaller fiscal drag, and maintenance of accommodative monetary policies, will grow at an annual pace closer to 1.9 percent," he said in an opinion piece on the Project Syndicate website on Tuesday.

"Moreover, so-called tail risks will be less salient in 2014."

(Read More: 'Dr. Doom' Roubini makes case FOR the US economy)

Threats of a euro zone implosion, another U.S. government partial shutdown, a debt-ceiling fight, a hard landing in China, or a war between Israel and Iran will be far more subdued, he said. Most advanced economies will still fail to reach true growth potential in 2014, he said, but explained that the positives for the U.S. economy included the shale-energy revolution, improvement in the labor and housing markets, and the flow of manufacturing back to the country.

He also expects emerging markets (EMs) to perform well next year. A fall in commodity prices in 2013 and fears over the "tapering" of U.S. Federal Reserve stimulus hit these economies hard, but Roubini expects them to grow faster this year – closer to 5 percent.

"Brisker recovery in advanced economies will boost imports from emerging markets. The Fed's exit from QE (quantitative easing) will be slow, keeping interest rates low. Policy reforms in China will attenuate the risk of a hard landing. And, with many emerging markets still urbanizing and industrializing, their rising middle classes will consume more goods and services," he said.

(Read More: Roubini: No Stock Bubble, but 'Huge' Crash Could Come Later)


Most Popular