—This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on December 24, Tuesday.
Welcome to CNBC Business Daily.
US stocks extending gains from last week with the Dow and S&P 500 closing at record highs on Monday. Some market commentators say that the run up in stocks this year has largely been due to the Federal Reserve's stimulus program. And as we get ready for the Fed's taper move, which is set to kick-off next month, will the equity rally in developed markets continue?Especially on the back of strong gains also seen in Europe. Here's what the experts told us. Have a listen:
[Jim Nelson, Chief Portfolio Manager, Euro Pacific Asset Management] The S&P 500 has risen 25 percent this year, while earnings have only risen about three percent. So you've had this expansion on expectations instead of improving economic conditions. In Europe, you've had a really nice rally as well, from the Draghi put of 2012, and European equities are also trading near historical highs. But I think the thing you want to key in on is that the earnings profile of Europe have not recovered to where they were pre-Global Financial Crisis in 2007. So you still have an earnings recovery play there.
[Arjuna Mahendran, CIO of Emirates National Bank of Dubai] Take the S&P 500. It's now trading probably at around 19 times its future earnings. That's compared to an average of around 16 times for the past 20-30 years. Once you hit the 20s, I reckon you're talking bubble territory. We could see another repeat of the past 2-3 years – sell in May and go away. You know, that period between May and August when markets tend to slowdown.
[Simon Grose-Hodge, Head of Investment Advisory, South Asia, LGT Bank, Singapore] Tapering is going to be unwound very gradually over the course of the entire 2014. That's a pace which the market can deal with. So for any companies out there, for years on end, they've had so many challenges, so many roadblocks ahead of them. That they've held back their own investment. Now that they've had got a pretty clear picture for the next year or more, and we think that will encourage them to invest a lot more particularly in software and IT. And therefore those are areas that we like. We really think that if there's going to be a surprise to the market, it could be higher growth than expected in the U.S. rather than lower. So we're very overweight equity.
[Joe Bell, Senior Equity Analyst, Schaeffer's Investment Research] A lot of people out there have only been crediting this market rally to a Fed-fueled market rally or a stimulus to the QE. We don't think the economy's been given the credit that it's been due. We think bigger picture working in that transition where so much doubt, much of it due to that sort of worry that this is only Fed fueled. People have that money on the sidelines. We think we're in that transition where that money starting to flow back into the market and we don't think we're near that major market top yet. We still think that money has a ways to go.
I am Julia Wood reporting from CNBC's Asia Pacific Headquarters in Singapore. Thanks for watching.
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