Oil prices could go well under $80 a barrel if a deal is struck to rein in Iran's nuclear ambitions, Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer predicted Monday.
"This is the do or die year for Iran," he said on CNBC's "Squawk Box."
The price of oil, as he pointed out, is already going down as an extra 500,000 barrels a day of Libyan supply are coming back online after the restart of a key oilfield there.
Last week, oil prices dropped 6.3 percent—its worst week since June 2012. Crude is slightly higher in early Monday trading.
"Even without an Iranian deal, the Saudis are going to have to reduce production just to maintain a price floor above $80 [a barrel] by the end of first quarter," Bremmer said.
"If an Iran deal happens, we're going well under that. The Saudis won't be able to keep that going," he added.
Alternatively, he pointed to a grim scenario if an Iran deal isn't achieved: "Iran moving very quickly towards becoming a de facto nuclear breakout state, the Saudis going nuclear, too."
Bremmer's comments follow Eurasia's report on their top risks facing the world in 2014—risks that are likely to stem from politics rather than the economic environment, which has stabilized since the 2008 financial crisis.
In a report released Monday, the political risk consultancy ranked America's troubled alliances, diverging markets, China, Iran and petrostates as the top five in a list of 10 risks facing the world.
(Read more: Ten trends that will shape Asia in 2014: Carnegie)
"In 2014, big-picture economics are stable if not yet comforting," Eurasia said in the report. "But geopolitics is very much in play. The realities of a G-Zero order, a world of geopolitical creative destruction without global leadership, are evident."
US President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping.Jewel Samad | AFP | Getty Images
Political risk has resurfaced recently, from tension between Asia's two big economies—China and Japan—over disputed islands in the East China Sea, to unrest in Ukraine, Turkey, Egypt, Thailand and Cambodia.
"There are tensions between China and Japan in the East China Sea, elite-level executions in North Korea, Russia flexing its muscles in neighboring Ukraine and beyond, and everyone fighting with everyone else in the Middle East," Eurasia said. "All of which is changing the geopolitical map quite aside from the role of the world's only superpower."
Geopolitical risk in Asia has increasingly been talked about by analysts as something to watch closely this year.
"The biggest risk arguably is in north Asia, with the conflicts between Japan and China that needs to be resolved," Colin Chapman, president, New South Wales at the Australian Institute of International Affairs, told CNBC on Monday.
Eurasia said that other risks this year include cybersecurity, a resurgence of al-Qaeda-style terrorism, growing unrest in the Middle East, and Russia, where the popularity of President Vladimir Putin is slipping, and instability in Turkey.