Sunday, March 3, 2024
Hometalking numbersWhy gold could be setting up for a nice trade: Strategist

Why gold could be setting up for a nice trade: Strategist

The first trading day of 2014 was a miniature version of 2013, but in reverse. Stocks were down and gold was up.

So, does this mean a calendar change has reversed the fortunes of gold?

At the very least, gold could possibly see a little bit of a bounce, according to CNBC contributor Andrew Busch, editor and publisher of The Busch Update. In looking at the charts of the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (the GLD, which is the world's largest gold ETF), Busch notes that has indeed bounced from a bottom of around $114.45 twice recently.

(Read: Gold holds gains, near 2-week high on softer equities)

"The 10-day [moving average] is still below the 30-day which normally would indicate downside pressure," says Busch. "But, you can see we're also trading around $118. So, gold is up a bit [Monday] and has rallied off those lows."

Gold prices are being helped by the current international environment, according to Busch.

"I'm seeing with global uncertainty – with Turkey falling apart, with the Thai stock market dropping 5% – people are turning back to gold as a disaster hedge.

Chad Morganlander, portfolio manager at Washington Crossing Advisors, thinks gold prices may improve over the short-term but the fundamentals don't bode well for the yellow metal's long-term prospects.

"Maybe you get a 2% to 5% jump in gold," says Morganlander. "But, in the long run, gold is in purgatory. The US economy is starting to improve; we think the economy here is going to grow perhaps at a 3% rate."

Morganlander also cites credit stability in Europe as a reason gold could be dim in the future. "We don't think there's going to be a real disaster scenario happening in the next six months," says Morganlander. "The global economy will gradually improve. We think that gold is going to slowly deteriorate as the banking system heals itself."

(Watch: Better bet in 2014: Gold or bitcoin?)

The Federal Reserve Bank's recent decision to taper its monthly bond-buying stimulus program ("quantitative easing") to $75 billion per month from $85 billion will also negatively affect gold prices, according to Morganlander.

"As the Federal Reserve pares back their quantitative easing, you're going to start to see gold prices decelerate and go lower over the next six to twelve months," says Morganlander.

"Mind you, we owned gold for seven years," says Morganlander. "Last year, our group sold gold. So, we are now done. Stay away. "

To see the rest of the analysis of gold by Busch and Morganlander, watch the video above.

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