Wednesday, March 29, 2023
Hometalking numbersOne portfolio manager was long gold for six years. Then THIS happened

One portfolio manager was long gold for six years. Then THIS happened

When there's worldwide instability, the safest place to turn to is gold, right?

Well, maybe not.

Though gold is up five straight weeks and edging closer to $1,300 per ounce – and while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 318 point Friday – one portfolio manager doesn't think investors should be running towards the yellow metal.

(Watch: US stocks slammed; Dow falls 300-plus points in worst week since 2011)

Chad Morganlander, portfolio manager at Washington Crossings Advisors, says that gold's recent rally in the wake of bad news from emerging market instability is no reason to go long. Instead, he believes the macro picture is positive, making the reason to hold gold all the less pressing.

"The global economy is improving and the banking system is doing quite well," says Morganlander. "Maybe you'll get a little bit of a pop, maybe another 3%. But I certainly would stay away from gold as an asset class."

Morganlander says better economic conditions were the reason he gold last year.

"We owned gold for six years," says Morganlander. "We sold it last year and that's because of improving credit conditions."

JC O'Hara, Chief Market Technician at FBN Securities, also doesn't believe bullion is a good deal at these prices. "I don't know if I would be too interested in buying right here," says O'Hara.

O'Hara notes that some may cite bullish technicals to make the case for gold, including a double bottom at $1,200, a flattening 150-day moving average, and a test of a downtrend from its August highs.

(Read: Gold sets fifth straight weekly gain; ends $1,264)

"But, you know what? You're in a bear market," says O'Hara. "There are still plenty of bad things with this chart."

For O'Hara, the long-term downtrend from around $1,800 in 2012 is still intact. As well, he sees gold hitting resistance around $1,350.

"While there could be a trade in this, I'm not running to jump in this trade right now," says O'Hara. "I would rather buy a pullback than buy a breakout in gold."

To see the rest of the discussion on gold by Morganlander on the fundamentals and O'Hara on the technicals, watch the video above.

More from Talking Numbers:

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